Manage Your Digital Risk Using Scenario Planning

Venation approaches Digital Risk Management from a scenario perspective. We leverage the method scenario planning; a strategic method organizations use to anticipate and prepare for potential future events, uncertainties and risk. It involves creating detailed and plausible scenarios that explore different ways the future might unfold, based on varying assumptions about key drivers and trends. We believe this proactive approach enables organizations to better understand potential risks, seize opportunities, and anticipate outcomes, allowing them to make informed decisions and develop flexible risk management strategies. At Venation, we apply this thinking to all our services; most notably our scenario intelligence subscription, threat assessments, and professional services. Developing numerous threat scenarios and making those available for teams to perform similar analysis themselves. Saving your teams time creating the scenarios.


  • Enhanced Preparedness: By considering a wide range of potential futures, organizations can develop risk management strategies that are robust and adaptable, ensuring they are better prepared for unexpected changes and disruptions.
  • Informed Decision-Making: Scenario planning provides a structured framework for exploring uncertainties and evaluating the implications of different decisions. This leads to more informed and strategic risk management decision-making.
  • Risk Mitigation: Identifying potential risks and developing contingency plans allows organizations to mitigate the impact of adverse events and reduce vulnerability.
  • Opportunity Identification: Scenario planning helps organizations recognize emerging opportunities and position themselves to capitalize on favorable trends and developments.
  • Improved Strategic Agility: Organizations that engage in scenario planning are more agile and capable of adapting to changing conditions. This agility is crucial for maintaining a competitive edge in dynamic environments.

Example: Scenario-based Risk Management

Consider a technology company that is planning both long-term and short-term risk management strategy in the face of rapid technological advancements and changing market dynamics. The company identifies long-term key drivers such as advancements in artificial intelligence, shifts in consumer preferences, and potential regulatory changes. Here's three examples of high-level scenarios that could be developed:

  • Scenario 1: Rapid AI Adoption: In this optimistic scenario, AI technologies are widely adopted across industries, leading to increased demand for the company's AI products and services. The company prepares by investing in AI research, expanding its AI product portfolio, and building strategic partnerships.
  • Scenario 2: Regulatory Constraints: In this more challenging scenario, new regulations are introduced that restrict the use of certain AI technologies. The company develops strategies to navigate compliance requirements, diversifies its product offerings, and advocates for favorable regulatory policies.
  • Scenario 3: Economic Downturn: In this pessimistic scenario, a global economic downturn reduces consumer spending and investment in new technologies. The company focuses on cost optimization, maintaining strong customer relationships, and exploring new revenue streams to sustain operations.

These scenarios are not directly actionable for the technology companies digital risk or cyber security professionals. They are too vague and ambiguous. Their teams require more tangible scenarios, allowing for a consistent narrative from board to basement. This is where Venation's scenario content supports their team to break this down further. Here's three examples for the 'Rapid AI Adoption' scenario:

  • Supply Chain Manipulation via Core GitHub Repository: A core GitHub repository used by the company is manipulated by malicious actors, resulting in compromised software components.
  • Threat to Machine Learning Underlying Models: An incident occurs where an AI algorithm is found to be biased, leading to public backlash and regulatory scrutiny.
  • Data Security Breach via Kubernetes Infrastructure: A data security breach occurs due to targeted attacks on the company’s underlying Kubernetes infrastructure.

They login to the Venation portal via content.venation.digital. They search for associated scenarios. They identify relevant scenarios and note that. The Venation scenarios have extensive details, breaking down the entire attack scenario. Allowing them to discuss risk mitigation strategies and identify priorities. This provides the technology teams company a consistent, scenario-based, narrative for all their digital risk management efforts.

By developing and analyzing these scenarios, the technology company develops risk management strategies that position it for success regardless of how the future unfolds.

Contact us today to learn how Venation can support you in developing your scenario-based defense strategy.

Frequently Asked Questions